(DCNF)—CNN chief data reporter Harry Enten said Friday that Americans have more confidence in the stock market under President Donald Trump in comparison to past presidents.
A majority of Americans, 50%, believe the stock market will rise in six months under Trump, which is higher than the 42% and 41% of Americans who held this view under former Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama at this point in their second terms. This indicates a positive sign for the Trump administration while Americans have tended to hold a negative view of Trump’s economy overall.
“Take a look at where, at this point, Donald Trump is in his second term. Compare that to Barack Obama, George W. Bush, say stocks will rise in the next six months. Look at that, 50 percent of Americans say they believe that stocks will rise in the next six months,” Enten said. “That is, in fact, the highest percentage for any president in their second term at this point in the 21st century.”
“So what you’re seeing here is it’s not just that Americans think that the stock market is doing well now,” Enten continued. “They expect it to continue to do well. And that, that 50 percent is quite unusual for a president at this point in their second term.”
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A majority of Americans have expressed dissatisfaction with Trump’s economy, with an average of 55% disapproving of his handling of the economy, according to RealClearPolitics. A CBS News poll from early February also found that 55% of Americans believe prices have been going up, indicating that they are unsatisfied with Trump’s handling of inflation, and a plurality also expect the economy to slow throughout the year.
Americans have become significantly more satisfied with the stock market since April 2025, when the markets took a steep downturn due to Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The percentage of Americans who believe the stock market is good rose from 27% in April to 40% currently, while those viewing it negatively dropped from 56% to 22% in that same time frame, Enten noted.
A plurality of Democratic and independent voters, 30%, believed that the stock market is in “fairly good” shape, according to a CBS News/YouGov poll from late January. Only 10% of Democrats and 9% of independents rated the markets as “very bad.”
“And I will also note that even among Democrats it’s split and among independents, who have been such a bad group for the president of the United States, in fact, they, a plurality of them, believe that the stock market is in shape,” Enten said.
The prediction markets estimated as of Friday that there was a 65% chance the S&P 500 would go up in 2026, which is the best economic indicator for the Trump administration.
Exit polls indicated in the 2024 election that voters prioritized the economy and immigration, which ultimately led to Trump’s victory over former Vice President Kamala Harris. While Americans have been dissatisfied with Trump’s handling of inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.4% in January, which was less than expected.
Major U.S. stock indexes have reached record-highs. the S&P 500 climbed approximately 20.9% from Nov. 5, 2024, to early February.
After the S&P 500 went up by about 16% in 2025, Trump oversaw the second-highest annualized return in the stock market since March 1897, when former President William McKinley was president, as of mid-January, according to Yahoo News.
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Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
