Europe’s New War Economy: From Green Collapse to Military Keynesianism

(Zero Hedge)—While the green pseudo-economy drags the broader economy into the basement, two-thirds of Germans say they are satisfied with renewable energy or even want to see it expanded more rapidly. Meanwhile, the construction of a European war economy marks the next stage in Europe’s ongoing impoverishment.

The most popular yet most destructive economic strategy remains the modern interpretation of Keynesianism. With his oversimplified view of economic activity, the British economist John Maynard Keynes inadvertently handed postwar politicians a toolkit that they later perverted into an all-purpose “solution” for every economic crisis. The condensed version reads as follows: nearly every recession stems from a demand shortfall by consumers. The state’s job, therefore, is to create artificial credit to fill this demand gap.

Recipe for Bureaucratic Expansion

Lower interest rates, print credit, and—so the fairy tale goes—the economy takes off. In reality, what remains is a mountain of state debt, a swelling bureaucracy, distorted financial markets, and declining productivity. These are economic facts, easily verified even by non-economists. Prosperity arises from a growing capital stock that serves consumer demand efficiently and precisely with more goods and services.

Keynesian policy has proven disastrous for Europe, because it hands politicians a permanent excuse to expand their influence, build bureaucracy, and manipulate markets. Political institutions such as the European Commission, most European parties, and the governments of member states operate almost exclusively in this mode.

The Green Deal

It was in this spirit that the Green Deal was born—a pseudo-economy disguised as “green transformation” and sold to the public as a contribution to saving the planet. In truth, it is a monstrous contraption, a grotesque response to Europe’s strategic energy dependency, which devours ever-larger portions of the economy each year just to keep its oversized subsidy machine running.

In 2024 alone, Germany poured between €90 and €100 billion into this machine. The federal government provided €58 billion, while the European Investment Bank added €8.6 billion in fresh loans, the EU’s InvestEU program €9.1 billion, and the EU’s Innovation and Environment Funds about €20 billion. Without this constant flow of financing, the zombie economy would collapse. As if to prove the point, the German government has funneled another €100 billion of debt—disguised as a “special fund”—into the ever-hungry green subsidy machine.

Pseudo-economies survive only through new injections of capital, producing continuously against market demand. Internal tensions rise until collapse becomes inevitable. The Green Deal has trapped Europe in precisely this downward spiral.

The Spillover

Germany is now in its third year of recession and recording a record number of corporate bankruptcies. At the same time, the government has added half a million public-sector jobs in just six years, while 1.2 million private-sector jobs disappeared. Combined with uncontrolled migration, the result is extreme pressure on Germany’s welfare system.

Politics has retreated into a purely defensive posture: the welfare state as a catch basin for the hundreds of thousands losing their livelihoods, while the private sector collapses under the burden of energy costs and subsidies.

The diagnosis is clear: the Green Deal is a dead end. Every euro spent on it crowds out private capital markets, misallocates resources, and shackles workers in unproductive sectors. The contrast with Argentina is striking: there, President Milei slashed the state’s share of GDP by six percentage points and triggered an economic boom of 7.7% growth.

Transformation Requires Pain

The only way out for Europe is to accept a painful transformation phase, shrink the state, and abandon its eco-fantasies. Rational energy policy means nuclear power and reintegrating Russian energy supplies.

Yet public opinion tells a different story: 64% of Germans are satisfied with renewables or want more of them. Years of state propaganda have erased the link between green subsidies and economic collapse. The climate-change narrative- moralized and weaponized – has cemented itself into public consciousness.

Renewables may have their place, but only in free markets, without coercion or forced levies. The green zombie economy has never succeeded in reviving Europe’s growth. It is time to face reality and tear down this structure before anything new can be built.

The Next Attempt

But Europe shows no signs of changing course. The bureaucracy has grown too large to dismantle itself. From Berlin to Brussels, leaders treat the industrial exodus as a series of unfortunate accidents rather than the direct result of their policies. The cozy “Made for Germany” roundtable between Friedrich Merz and DAX CEOs confirmed the suspicion of corporate-statist collusion.

Having failed with the Green Deal, Europe’s politicians are now trying a new pseudo-economy: a debt-fueled military-industrial complex. According to a study by Ernst & Young, Germany’s DAX companies cut 30,000 jobs in the first half of 2025—except for defense contractors Rheinmetall and MTU Aero Engines, which increased headcount by 17% and 7%, respectively.

The EU’s plan: by 2035, half of all European defense goods—from artillery and cyber defense to precision munitions—will be produced within the bloc, creating up to 660,000 jobs. This will be financed not only by swelling national defense budgets but also by EU programs like ReARM Europe and SAFE, which will raise hundreds of billions in new debt.

Eyes Wide Shut

Brussels plans to mobilize an additional €800 billion in defense spending by 2030. Yet no sector produces further from real consumer demand than the arms industry. This is Keynesian pseudo-economics in its most extreme form—buying time with debt while starving private capital markets.

The rise of the defense lobby as Brussels’ new darling will turbocharge corruption, deepen the divide between parasitic EU structures and shrinking productive forces, and cement corporatist cronyism as the EU’s operating system. Von der Leyen’s Pfizer text-message scandal remains the most fitting symbol of this clandestine Brussels machine.

In the end, Europe’s war economy has neither the resources nor the technology to deliver on the dream of a militarized EU. It is a tragic rerun of the Green Deal—propaganda-driven, debt-fueled, and doomed to collapse.