(Substack)—Gold prices keep climbing, breaking records almost weekly, and now experts are pointing to a potent mix of investor anxiety and economic shifts that could drive the metal even higher. The spot price recently touched an all-time high of $3,880.80 per ounce, marking a gain of more than 47% so far this year. With uncertainty swirling around a possible government shutdown and the Federal Reserve eyeing more rate cuts, the rush into gold shows no signs of slowing.
Aakash Doshi, head of gold strategy at State Street Investment Management, captures the mood perfectly in a recent client note: “US $4,000/oz+ is likely a question of ‘when’ not ‘if’ in the current FOMO environment. We think there is a 75% probability that bullion markets breach US$4,000+ in 4Q or by early 2026.”
This fear of missing out, or FOMO, has investors piling in, worried they’ll be left behind if prices keep soaring. Doshi’s prediction aligns with broader market sentiment, where gold acts as a hedge against inflation and currency weakness. The U.S. dollar has weakened significantly against major trading partners, posting its worst annual drop since the 1970s, which only bolsters gold’s appeal as a store of value.
Diving deeper into the mechanics, Doshi explains how Fed policy plays a central role: “As the Fed resumes its rate-cutting cycle, [gold could be supported] through two key channels: (1) Reduced opportunity cost of holding gold as a non-yielding asset; and (2) Further potential bull steepening in the US Treasury curve, which should on balance be a US$ negative phenomenon.”
Lower interest rates make alternatives like bonds less attractive, pushing more capital toward gold. The CME FedWatch Tool shows markets pricing in cuts for October and December 2025, which could further depress the dollar and fuel this rally. Similar views echo from other corners; J.P. Morgan analysts forecast gold averaging $3,675 per ounce by late 2025 before climbing to $4,000 by mid-2026, driven by sustained central bank buying and investor demand. Goldman Sachs sees it hitting $4,000 by mid-2026 as well, citing persistent global uncertainties.
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) backed by physical gold are seeing inflows at levels not matched since 2020, though holdings remain below pandemic peaks. Doshi notes this leaves room for more buying: “Bullion ETF inflows can materially tighten gold supply/demand balances and are a primary factor driving record prices this year.”
State Street’s SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest such ETF, logged steady weekly inflows through late September, per ETF.com data. Other funds like ProShares Ultra Gold and DB Gold Double Long ETN have surged over 90% this year, while Sprott Physical Gold Trust and Franklin Responsibly Sourced Gold ETF are up 47%, according to VettaFi.
This FOMO-driven surge isn’t isolated. The World Gold Council attributes the rally to institutional investors jumping in to avoid being sidelined. Even bolder calls are out there, with some strategists eyeing $5,000 within the next year amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and fiscal concerns. As of today, October 6, 2025, the live spot price hovers around $3,941 per ounce, already pushing past the $3,900 barrier for the first time on safe-haven bids. If the dollar continues its slide and rate cuts materialize, that $4,000 mark might arrive sooner than expected, rewarding those who got in early while leaving latecomers scrambling.
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