The Senate is back in session today while the partial government shutdown that kicked off on October 1 shows no signs of letting up. Federal workers might still see their paychecks hit accounts this Friday for the cycle ending last Saturday, but without a resolution, the next round on October 24 could leave many high and dry. President Donald Trump has pointed the finger squarely at Democrats for any potential job losses stemming from the impasse.
Trump addressed reporters on Sunday, stating, “That’s taking place right now, and it’s all because of the Democrats. The Democrats are causing the loss of a lot of jobs.” This comes as the administration weighs deeper cuts to the federal workforce, a move that builds on reductions already made earlier this year. Past shutdowns haven’t typically led to widespread layoffs, but the current situation has the White House signaling a willingness to trim bureaucracy further if the funding lapse drags on.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, appearing on CBS’s “Face the Nation,” laid out the Republican position clearly. He explained that the House had already passed a bipartisan, clean continuing resolution weeks ago and sent it over to the Senate.
“The reason that House Republicans are home working in their districts, and I suspect House Democrats should be as well, is because we did that. We passed a bipartisan, very clean, continuing resolution a couple of weeks back now and sent it to the Senate,” Johnson said.
With the House extending its district work period into next week, the onus falls on Senate Democrats to stop blocking the measure if they want to reopen affected agencies swiftly.
Democrats, however, have repeatedly thwarted attempts to advance the House bill, just as Republicans have resisted a Democratic proposal that ties funding to health care changes. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, also on CBS Sunday, called for broader talks involving key leaders from both chambers and the president. “You actually need Johnson if you’re going to negotiate any agreement. You need Johnson, Thune, Trump, Schumer and Jeffries,” Schumer said. “And the reason he sent them home is because he’s more interested in protecting the Epstein files than protecting the American people from the health care crisis. We’ve been trying for months and months to sit down with them and have a serious conversation addressing America’s health care needs. And they’ve refused and refused and refused.”
Schumer’s reference to the Epstein files points to a bipartisan discharge petition in the House that’s one signature away from forcing a vote on releasing documents tied to the late Jeffrey Epstein. That last signature is expected from newly elected Rep. Adelita Grijalva of Arizona, but with the House not in full session, the process stalls. Johnson has kept up appearances on Capitol Hill during the shutdown, even as most members handle constituent work back home.
Beyond the funding fight, the Senate’s Republican majority plans to push forward on other fronts. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has set the stage to confirm over 100 of President Trump’s nominees this week. Among them is Herschel Walker, the ex-NFL star and former Senate hopeful, tapped as ambassador to the Bahamas. The list also includes reappointing Paul Atkins to the Securities and Exchange Commission through 2031.
As negotiations remain stalled, the shutdown affects various federal operations, potentially escalating pressure on lawmakers to find common ground. Republicans argue their straightforward funding extension offers the quickest fix, while Democrats insist on linking it to broader policy demands, including health care reforms amid ongoing debates over costs and access that have simmered since the Affordable Care Act’s expansions.
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
