(Zero Hedge)—One month after unexpectedly sliding into contraction for the first time in 2025, moments ago the S&P Manufacturing PMI even more unexpectedly soared from 49.8 to 53.3, not only smashing expectations of another decline to 49.7 and printing well above the highest economist forecast and in fact printing 7-sigma above the median estimate…
… but was the highest print since May 2022! According to S&P’s PMI report, the surge signaled “a renewed improvement of factory business conditions after a brief deterioration in July.”
At the same time the S&P Services PMI declined from last month’s red hot 55.7 to 55.4, but still beat estimates of 54.2. As a result, the composite PMI of US business activity grew at the fastest rate recorded so far this year in August, rising to 55.4 from 55.1, matching the previous post-covid high from Dec 2024 and adding to signs of a strong third quarter. Output has now grown continually for 31 months, with the latest two months seeing the strongest back-to-back expansions since the spring of 2022.
According to the report, growth was seen across both manufacturing and service sectors of the economy. Hiring also picked up. Most notably, job creation reached one of the highest rates seen over the past three years as companies reported the largest build-up in uncompleted work since May 2022.
Some more details:
- Production rose for a third successive month, rising at a pace not recorded since May 2022, buoyed by the largest influx of new orders since February 2024.
- Factory employment meanwhile rebounded after a decline in July to register the largest payroll gain since March 2022. Inventories of inputs also rose sharply after a drop in July.
- That left only the suppliers delivery times index acting as a drag on the PMI (reflecting faster deliveries), but to a lesser degree than in July.
- Backlogs rose at an unchanged and therefore joint-steepest rate since May 2022 in the services economy, while manufacturing backlogs also rose to the greatest extent in over three years.
- While many manufacturers reported improved sales and demand, the upturn in production and order inflows was in part linked to renewed inventory building. Stocks of finished goods rose to an extent not previously recorded since data were first available in 2007, while stocks of purchased inputs showed the second-largest rise seen for over three years.
- While stock building was partly fueled by expectations of rising demand, some factories also reported increased safety-stock building amid fears of supply shortages or to protect against further price rises, in turn reflecting the recent impact of import tariffs.
There was more good news when it comes to jobs: employment rose for a sixth successive month, with the pace of job creation hitting the highest since January (and one of the strongest rates seen for over three years). Service providers took on staff at the fastest pace for seven months while factory job gains reached the highest since March 2022. Companies largely took on additional staff in response to rising backlogs of work. Uncompleted orders rose for a fifth consecutive month, rising in August at a pace unsurpassed since May 2022 reflecting stronger demand and near-term capacity constraints at some companies.
There were some concerns on the price side, with tariffs reported as the key driver of further cost increases in August. Companies across both manufacturing and service sectors collectively reported the steepest rise in input prices since May and the second-largest increase since January 2023. Rates of increase accelerated in both sectors. While the manufacturing cost rise was especially large, being the second-steepest since August 2022, the service sector increase was the second-highest since June 2023. Average prices charged for goods and services rose at the sharpest rate since August 2022 as firms passed higher costs on to customers. Although goods price inflation cooled slightly for a second month in a row, it remained among the highest seen over the past three years. Service sector price inflation meanwhile was the sharpest since August 2022.
Business confidence in the outlook also improved but remained much weaker than seen at the start of the year as companies reported ongoing concerns over the impact of government policies, especially in relation to tariffs. Tariffs were again widely cited as the principal cause of sharply higher costs, which in turn fed through to the steepest rise in average selling prices recorded over the past three years.
Commenting on the report, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said that the “strong flash PMI reading for August adds to signs that US businesses have enjoyed a strong third quarter so far. The data are consistent with the economy expanding at a 2.5% annualized rate, up from the average 1.3% expansion seen over the first two quarters of the year.”
“Companies across both manufacturing and services are reporting stronger demand conditions, but are struggling to meet sales growth, causing backlogs of work to rise at a pace not seen since the pandemic-related capacity constraints recorded in early 2022. Stock building of finished goods has also risen at a survey record pace, linked in part to worries over future supply conditions.”
“While this upturn in demand has fueled a surge in hiring, it has also bolstered firms’ pricing power. Companies have consequently passed tariff-related cost increases through to customers in increasing numbers, indicating that inflation pressures are now at their highest for three years.”
As a result, the economist concludes that the “rise in selling prices for goods and services suggests that consumer price inflation will rise further above the Fed’s 2% target in the coming months. Indeed, combined with the upturn in business activity and hiring, the rise in prices signaled by the survey puts the PMI data more into rate hiking, rather than cutting, territory according to the historical relationship between these economic indicators and FOMC policy changes.”
In other words, the report coming unexpectedly strong, may be just an attempt by the traditionally anti-Trumpian S&P to pressure the Fed into maintaining a hawkish bias even as the labor market – at least as measured by most other 3rd parties – continues to deteriorate.
Why Bullion Beats Numismatics and Collectible for Your Safe or IRA
Precious metals continue to attract Americans seeking reliable ways to protect their wealth amid inflation, geopolitical risks, and stock market swings. Whether stored in a home safe or held inside a self-directed IRA, physical gold and silver deliver tangible value that paper or digital assets often lack. Yet investors must choose carefully between bullion—pure bars and coins valued mainly for their metal content—and numismatics or collectibles, where rarity, history, and collector demand heavily influence pricing.
Advisor Bullion serves as a dependable source for straightforward, high-quality bullion. The company specializes in physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, emphasizing transparent pricing and products that deliver maximum metal content for every dollar spent. This approach makes it ideal for both personal holdings and retirement accounts.
Bullion consists of refined precious metals in standard forms like one-ounce coins (American Gold Eagles, Silver Eagles, Canadian Maple Leafs) or bars. Their value tracks closely to the current spot price of the metal. A typical gold bullion coin trades near the live gold spot price plus a small premium. This structure keeps costs clear and predictable.
Numismatic coins and collectibles add substantial value from factors such as age, rarity, minting errors, or historical significance. A pre-1933 U.S. gold coin or graded proof piece can carry premiums of 30%, 50%, or even 200% above melt value. While this appeals to hobbyists, it creates complexity. Pricing depends on subjective grading, collector trends, and auction results instead of daily spot prices.
For investors focused on wealth preservation and retirement security rather than building a collection, bullion often delivers better results.
Lower Costs and Better Liquidity for Home Storage
When keeping metals in a home safe or private vault, liquidity and efficiency count. Bullion offers clear benefits:
- You acquire more actual gold or silver per dollar invested. Numismatics divert a large share of your money into rarity premiums and massive sales commission, reducing your metal exposure.
- Selling bullion involves tight bid-ask spreads, so you recover nearly full spot value with minimal fees. Collectibles require finding the right buyer and may sell at a discount if demand for that specific item weakens.
- Bullion prices remain transparent and update with global spot markets. You can track gold near current levels or silver accordingly and know exactly where your holdings stand. Numismatic values are priced by the Gold IRA companies with hefty margins applied.
- Standardized coins and bars store efficiently and divide easily for partial sales. Rare coins often need protective slabs and controlled conditions, adding hassle and expense.
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In times when quick access to value becomes important, bullion’s simplicity stands out.
Stronger Fit for Precious Metals IRAs
Precious metals IRAs continue gaining traction as investors diversify retirement portfolios beyond stocks and bonds. IRS rules permit certain bullion products in self-directed IRAs if they meet purity standards (.995 fine for gold, .999 for silver) and are held by an approved custodian. Eligible items include American Gold and Silver Eagles plus many generic bars and rounds from recognized mints.
Numismatic and most collectible coins generally face heavy scrutiny from custodians due to valuation disputes and elevated markups. These higher premiums mean less actual metal ends up working inside the account.
Bullion avoids these issues. Its value links directly to verifiable spot prices, which simplifies reporting and lowers the risk of regulatory challenges. More of your IRA contribution purchases real metal instead of dealer profits or speculative upside. Over time, owning additional ounces that appreciate with the metal itself can create meaningful outperformance compared with high-premium alternatives that deliver fewer ounces.
Regulatory guidance from the CFTC and state securities offices repeatedly cautions against aggressive sales of expensive numismatics or “semi-numismatic” coins for IRAs. For retirement planning, transparent bullion from established providers reduces risk and aligns better with long-term goals.
How to Get Started with Bullion
Begin by clarifying your goals. Are you protecting savings in a safe, or moving part of a retirement account into a precious metals IRA? Focus on the number of ounces you can acquire at current prices rather than chasing marked-up collectibles.
Diversify sensibly: use gold for core preservation and silver for its blend of industrial and monetary qualities. Mix coins for easier divisibility with bars for lower per-ounce costs on larger buys. Arrange secure storage—whether at home with proper insurance or through professional facilities.
As economic uncertainties linger and faith in conventional assets erodes, bullion continues proving its worth as a dependable store of value. Its direct approach avoids the hype that sometimes surrounds collectible markets and keeps the focus on the metal itself.
For investors prepared to strengthen their portfolios, Advisor Bullion supplies the expertise and selection needed to acquire high-quality bullion efficiently. Whether building personal holdings or integrating metals into an IRA, their emphasis on transparent, investment-grade products helps secure more ounces today that support greater financial security tomorrow. In a complicated financial landscape, bullion’s clarity and reliability make it the smarter foundation for protecting what matters most.
